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insulated black absorbing tube running the length of the mirror. A number of
such installations have been built, particularly in the USA, where such solar ther-
mal installations provide over 350 MW of commercial electricity. Developments
that are currently being pursued are of integration of solar and fossil fuel heat
sources in combined cycle operation to enable continuous electricity provision
throughout the day, and, in arid areas, of co-generation of power and heat for
desalination for the delivery of fresh water.


Energy from the Sun: solar photovoltaics
Turning now to photovoltaic sources of electricity, solar panels on spacecraft
have provided electrical power from the earliest days of space research 50 years
ago. They now appear in a host of different ways in everyday life; for instance,
as power sources for small calculators or watches or for lighting of public areas
in remote places. Their ef¬ciency for conversion of solar energy into electrical
energy is now generally between 10% and 20%. A panel of cells of area 1 m 2
facing full sunlight will therefore deliver between 100 and 200 W of electrical
power. A cost-effective way of mounting PV modules is on the surface of manu-
factured items or built structures rather than as free-standing arrays. In the
fast-growing building-integrated-PV (BIPV) sector, the PV fa§ade replaces and
avoids the cost of conventional cladding. Installed on rooftops in cities, they
provide a way for city dwellers to contribute renewably to their energy needs.
Japan was the ¬rst to encourage rooftop solar installations and by 2000 had
installed 320 MW capacity. Germany and the USA followed with large rooftop
programmes, Germany with a target of 100 000 roofs that was met by 2003 and
the USA with a target by 2010 of 1 million roofs. The cost of energy from solar
cells has reduced dramatically over the past 20 years (see box) so that they can
now be employed for a wide range of applications and providing the fall contin-
ues can also begin to contribute to the large-scale generation of electricity.
Solar energy schemes can be highly versatile in size or application. Small
PV installations can provide local sources of electricity in rural areas espe-
cially in developing countries. About a third of the world™s population have no
access to electricity from a central source. Their predominant need is for small
amounts of power for lighting, radio and television, refrigerators and air condi-
tioning and for pumping water. The cost of PV installations for these purposes
is now competitive with other means of generation (such as diesel units). Over
the 20 years to the year 2000, over 1 million ˜solar home systems™ and ˜solar
366 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Local energy provision in Bangladesh
In a box earlier in the chapter on page 337, I outlined the components of a strategy for energy provision,
one of which emphasised the value of local and distributed sources of energy as opposed to centralised
sources in large units serving large grid networks.
An example of local provision is Grameen Shakti (meaning Rural Power) in Bangladesh “ a subsidi-
ary of Professor Yunus™s famed Grameen Bank “ that has developed an affordable solar home system
(Figure 11.19) offered to rural communities through a soft credit facility.54 From a small beginning in 1997,
Grameen Shakti now powers over 135 000 homes. A biogas system is now also being offered, using poul-
try waste and cow dung to produce gas for cooking, ranging in cost from $US200 to $US1400 depending
on its size “ the larger one being appropriate for a cluster of homes. Training for local people who can be
employed as technicians for installation, maintenance and operation of the systems is also provided. The
availability of lighting and local energy is providing new business opportunities.
The availability of carbon credits through the Clean Development Mechanism is enabling the cost to
be reduced bringing it within the range of some of the poorest people. Their aim is to have 1 million solar
home systems and 1 million biogas systems by 2015.




Light




Solar cell array



Television




+



Refrigerator
Car battery



Figure 11.19 A simple ˜solar home system™ now being marketed in many countries in Africa, Asia and South
America for a cost of a few hundred US dollars. An array of 36 solar cells, covering an area of 60 cm — 60 cm,
provides around 40 W of peak power. This is suf¬cient to charge a car battery that can power ¬‚uorescent or
LED lights, a few hours of radio and up to one hour of television per day. With more restricted use of these
devices or with a larger solar array, a small refrigerator can be added to the system.
367
OT H E R R E N E WA B L E E N E RG I E S




lanterns™ were installed in Asia, Africa and South American countries.53 Solar
home systems provide typically 15“100 W from a solar array (Figure 11.19)
and cost in the range of $US200“1200. Smaller ˜solar lanterns™ (typically 10 W)
provide lighting only. Larger installations are required for public buildings.
For instance small hospitals can bene¬t from a PV power source as small as
1“2 kW that, backed by batteries, can provide for lighting, refrigeration for
vaccines, autoclave sterilisation, pumping for hot water (produced through
a solar-thermal system) and radio. Many thousands of water pumps are now
powered by solar PV and thousands of communities receive drinking water
from solar-PV-powered puri¬ers/pumps. The potential for further growth and
development of solar systems is clearly very large. For instance, mini-electri-
cal grids powered by a combination of solar PV, wind, biomass and diesel are
beginning to emerge especially in the remoter parts of China and India.
The total installed world capacity of PV grew from about 500 MW peak in 1998
to about 6000 MW peak in 2006, an increase of over 30% per year. With that rate
of continued growth in both PV and CSP it should be possible to more than meet
the projected growth of the contribution of solar energy to world energy supply
by at least 1000-fold from today™s levels to around 11% of global electricity produc-
tion by 2050, as in the IEA BLUE Map scenario. In the short term, increased devel-
opment of local installations is likely to have priority; later, with the expectation
of a signi¬cant cost reduction (Figure 11.18), penetration into large-scale electric-
ity generation will become more possible. Eventually, because of its simplicity,
convenience and cleanliness, it is expected that electricity from solar PV sources
will become one of the largest “ if not the largest “ of the world™s energy sources.


Other renewable energies
We have so far covered the renewable energy sources for which there is poten-
tial for growth on a scale that can make a substantial contribution to overall
world energy demand. We should also mention brie¬‚y other renewable energy
technologies that contribute to global energy production and which are of par-
ticular importance in certain regions, namely geothermal energy from deep in
the ground and energies from the tides, currents or waves in the ocean.
The presence of geothermal energy from deep down in the Earth™s crust makes
itself apparent in volcanic eruptions and less dramatically in geysers and hot
springs. The temperature of the crust increases with depth and in favourable
locations the energy available may be employed directly for heating purposes or
for generating electrical power. Although very important in particular places,
for instance in Iceland, it is currently only a small contributor (about 0.3%) to
368 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




total world electricity; its contribution is esti-
mated to rise by about a factor of 10 by 2050
in the IEA BLUE Map scenario.55
Large amounts of energy are in principle
available in movements of the ocean; but in
general they are not easy to exploit. Tidal
energy is the only one currently contributing
signi¬cantly to commercial energy produc-
tion. It has the advantage over wind energy of
being precisely predictable and of presenting
few environmental or amenity problems. The
largest tidal energy installation is a barrage
across the estuary at La Rance in France; the
¬‚ow from the barrage is directed through tur-
bines as the tide ebbs so generating electric-
ity with a capacity of up to 240 MW. Several
estuaries in the world have been extensively
studied as potential sites for tidal energy
installations. The Severn Estuary in the UK,
for instance, possesses one of the largest tidal
ranges in the world and has the potential to
generate a peak power of over 8000 MW and
provide at least 6% of the total UK electricity
Figure 11.20 A tidal stream turbine. demand. Other estuaries in the UK with tidal
maxima at different times of day from the
Severn could help to ¬ll in the gaps when Severn power would not be available
“ so providing for a more continuous energy supply. Although the long-term
cost of the electricity generated from the largest schemes could be competitive,
the main deterrents to such schemes are seen to be the high capital upfront
cost and the possibility of environmental impacts. However, the opportunity of
harnessing such substantial quantities of long-term carbon-free power is now
being taken seriously in the UK and in other countries such as China where also
there are large tidal ranges.
Other proposals for tidal energy have been based on the construction of tidal
˜lagoons™ in suitable shallow regions offshore where there is a large tidal range.56
Turbines in the lagoon walls would generate electricity as water ¬‚ows in and out
of the lagoons. Some of the environmental and economic problems of barrages
built in estuaries might therefore be avoided.
The energy in tidal streams in coastal areas can be exploited in much the same
way as wind energy from the atmosphere is harnessed (Figure 11.20). Although
369
T H E S U P P O R T A N D F I N A N C I N G O F C A R B O N - F R E E E N E RG Y




Figure 11.21 A prototype of the Wave-Dragon “ a device that generates ˜7 MW of
electrical power from the energy available in waves is in process of installation off the
coast of southwest Wales, near Milford Haven. Waves break as they rise up a ramp facing
them and enter a reservoir creating a small head. Energy is generated by running water
down through turbines lower in the structure. The turbines are the only moving parts.


the speeds of water are lower than that of the wind, the greater density of sea
water results in higher energy densities and requires smaller turbine diameters
for similar power output. Substantial energy is also present in ocean waves. A
number of ingenious devices have been designed to turn this into electrical
energy (Figure 11.21)57 and some are beginning to provide commercial power.
However, because of the hostile ocean environment, early exploitation is com-
paratively costly. What is urgently needed for both tidal and wave energy is an
adequate level of research, development and initial investment.
The waters around the coasts of Western Europe provide some of the best
opportunities to exploit wave energy; for instance, tidal and wave energy
together have the potential to provide up to 20% of the UK™s electricity.


The support and ¬nancing of carbon-free energy
Energy free of carbon emissions on the scale required to meet any stabilisa-
tion scenario for carbon dioxide will only be realised if it is competitive in cost
with energy from other sources. Under some circumstances renewable energy
370 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Policy instruments
Action in the energy sector on the scale required to mitigate the effects of climate change through reduc-
tion in the emissions of greenhouse gases will require signi¬cant policy initiatives by governments in co-
operation with industry. Some of these initiatives are the following:61

• putting in place appropriate institutional and structural frameworks;
• energy pricing strategies (carbon or energy taxes and reduced energy subsidies);
• reducing or removing other subsidies (e.g. agricultural and transport subsidies) that tend to increase
greenhouse gas emissions;
• tradeable emissions permits (see Chapter 10, page 299);62
• voluntary programmes and negotiated agreements with industry;
• utility demand-side management programmes;
• regulatory programmes, including minimum energy ef¬ciency standards (e.g. for appliances and fuel
economy);
• stimulating R&D to make new technologies available;
• market pull and demonstration programmes that stimulate the development and application of advanced
technologies;
• renewable energy incentives during market build-up;
• incentives such as provisions for accelerated depreciation or reduced costs for consumers;
• information dissemination for consumers especially directed towards necessary behavioural changes;
• education and training programmes;
• technological transfer to developing countries;
• provision for capacity building in developing countries;
• options that also support other economic and environmental goals.




sources are already competitive in cost, for instance in providing local sources
of energy where the cost of transporting electricity or other fuel would be sig-
ni¬cant; some examples of this (such as Fair Isle in Scotland “ see box above)
have been given. However, when there is direct competition with fossil fuel
energy from oil and gas, many renewable energies at the present compete only
marginally. In due course, as easily recoverable oil and gas reserves begin to
run out, those fuels will become more expensive enabling renewable sources to
compete more easily. However, that is still some time away and for renewables
to begin now to displace fossil fuels to the extent required, appropriate ¬nancial
incentives must be introduced to bring about the change. Further to provide for
carbon capture and storage from fossil-fuel power stations and for some energy-
ef¬cient measures, additional ¬nance will also be necessary.
371
T H E S U P P O R T A N D F I N A N C I N G O F C A R B O N - F R E E E N E RG Y




Public sector
Incentives, standards,
Funding regulation, subsidies, taxes




Market/Demand pull
To:
From: Embodied
Basic Applied Demon- Niche
Disembodied Diffusion technology
R&D R&D stration markets
technology (plant,
(knowledge) equipment, etc.)
Product/Technology push




Investments, knowledge and
Funding
market spillovers

Private sector
Figure 11.22 The process of technology development and its main driving forces.



As we saw in Chapter 9, the basis of such incentives would be the principle
that the polluter should pay by the allocation of an environmental cost to carbon
dioxide emissions. There are three main ways in which this can be done. Firstly,
through a direct subsidy being provided by governments to carbon-free energy.
Secondly, through the imposition of a carbon tax. Suppose, for instance, that
through taxes or levies an additional cost of between $US25 and 50 per tonne
of carbon dioxide (¬gures mentioned in the context of environmental costs
towards the end of Chapter 9) were to be associated with carbon dioxide emis-
sions, between 1 and 4 cents per kWh would be added to the price of electricity
from fossil fuel sources“ which could bring some renewables (for instance, bio-
mass and wind energy) into competition with them.58 It is interesting to note
that in many countries substantial subsidies are attached to energy “ worldwide
they amount on average to the equivalent of more than $10 per tonne of car-
bon dioxide. A start with incentives would therefore be made if subsidies were
removed from energy generated from fossil fuel sources (see box below).
A third way of introducing an environmental cost to fossil fuel energy is
through tradeable permits in carbon dioxide emissions, as are being introduced
under arrangements for the management of the Kyoto Protocol (Chapter 10,
page 299). These control the total amount of carbon dioxide that a country or
region may emit while providing the means for industries to trade permits for
their allowable emissions within the overall total.
These ¬scal measures are relatively easy to apply in the electricity sector.
Electricity, however, only accounts for about one-third of the world™s primary
energy use. They also need to be applied to solid, liquid or gaseous fuels that
372 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Table 11.2 Key mitigation technologies and practices by sector

Key mitigation technologies and
Key mitigation technologies and practices practices projected to be commercialised
before 2030
Sector currently commercially available

CCS for gas- biomass-and coal-¬red
Energy supply Improved supply and distribution ef¬ciency;
electricity generating facilities; advanced
fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear
nuclear power; advanced renewable
power; renewable heat and power
energy, including tidal and wave energy,
(hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and
concentrating solar and solar PV.
bioenergy); combined heat and power; early
applications of carbon capture and storage
(CCS, e.g. storage of removed carbon
dioxide from natural gas).
Second-generation biofuels; higher-
Transport More fuel-ef¬cient vehicles; hybrid vehicles;
ef¬ciency aircraft; advanced electric and
cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal
hybrid vehicles with more powerful and
shifts from road transport to rail and public
reliable batteries.
transport systems; non-motorised transport
(cycling, walking); land-use and transport
planning.
Integrated design of commercial building
Buildings Ef¬cient lighting and daylighting; more
including technologies such as intelligent
ef¬cient electrical applicances and heating
meters that provide feedback and
and cooling devices; improved cooking
control; solar PV integrated in buildings.
stoves, improved insulation; passive and
active solar design for heating and cooling;
alternative refrigeration ¬‚uids, recovery and
recycle of ¬‚uorinated gases.
Advanced energy ef¬ciency, CCS for
Industry More ef¬cient end-use electrical
cement, ammonia and iron manufacture;
equipment; heat and power recovery;
insert electrodes for aluminium
material recycling and substitution; control
manufacture,
of non-carbon dioxide gas emissions; and a
wide array of process-speci¬c technologies.
Improvements of crop yields.
Agriculture Improved crop and grazing land
management to increase soil carbon storage;
restoration of cultivated peaty soils and
degraded lands; improved rice cultivation
techniques and livestock and manure
management to reduce methane emissions;
improved nitrogen fertiliser application
techniques to reduce nitrous oxide emissions;
dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel
use; improved energy ef¬ciency.
373
T H E S U P P O R T A N D F I N A N C I N G O F C A R B O N - F R E E E N E RG Y




Table 11.2 (Cont.)

Tree species improvement to
Forestry/forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest
increase biomass productivity and
management; reduced deforestation;
carbon sequestration, Improved
harvested wood product management;
remote sensing technologies for
use of forestry products for bioenergy to
analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon
replace fossil fuel use.
sequestration potential and mapping
land use change.
Biocovers and bio¬lters to optimise
Waste Land¬ll methane recovery; waste incineration
methane oxidation.
management with energy recovery; composting of organic
waste; controlled waste water treatment;
recycling and waste minimisation.




7
Non-OECD/EIT
EIT
6
OECD
World total
5 20
Gt CO2e yr “1




4




Gt CO2e yr “1
3
10

2


1


0 0
<20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100
$US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e $US per t CO2e
Energy supply Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste Total

Figure 11.23 Estimates of the economic potential for global mitigation in 2030 for different sectors
as a function of carbon price in terms of $US per tonne CO2e. The ranges shown by the studies are
indicated by vertical lines. Sectors used different baseline scenarios in between SRES B2 and A1B. Note
that not all categories were included leading to an underestimation of the total economic potential
of the order of 10 “15%. Also electricity efficiency potentials were incorporated in the building and
industry sectors. The three columns on the right combine the other columns into a total with a scale
on the right-hand side.
374 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




are used for heating, industry and transport. It has already been mentioned
that, currently, liquid fuels such as ethanol derived from biomass are signi¬-
cantly more expensive than those derived from fossil-fuel sources. Although
there is an expectation that the processing of biomass will become more ef¬-
cient “ the rapid development of technologies in bioengineering will help “ it
is unlikely that the employment of biomass-derived fuels can occur on the
scale required without the application of appropriate ¬ nancial incentives.
There is a further crucial area where incentives are also required if renew-
able energy sources are going to come on stream suf¬ciently rapidly to meet
the need. That is the area of research and development (R&D) “ the latter is
especially vital. Figure 11.22 illustrates how R&D ¬t into the normal process
of technology development. Government R&D, averaged worldwide, currently
runs at about $US10 billion per year or about 1% of worldwide capital investment
in the energy industry of about $US1 trillion (million million) per year (about
3% of GWP). On average, in developed countries it has fallen by about a factor
of 2 since the mid 1980s. In some countries the fall has been much greater, for
instance in the UK where government-sponsored energy R&D fell by about a
factor of 10 from the mid 1980s to 1998 when, in proportion to GDP, it was only
one-¬fth of that in the USA and one-seventeenth of that in Japan.59 It is surpris-
ing “ and concerning “ that such falls in R&D have occurred at a time when
the need to bring new renewable energy sources on line is greater than it has
ever been. Energy R&D needs to be substantially increased and carefully tar-
geted so as to enable promising renewable technologies to be introduced more
quickly. An increasing fraction of capital investment in the energy industry is
also needed for new renewable sources. In the box above are listed some of the
policy instruments that need to be applied for this revolution in the way we
generate our energy to really get under way.
In a speech in 2003, Lord Browne, the Group Chief Executive of British
Petroleum, emphasised the importance of actively planning for the long term.
After explaining the steps to be taken to combat change in the energy sector
and the major investments that will be required he went on to say:60

If such steps are to be taken, it is important to demonstrate the real
value of taking a long-term approach which transcends the gap in time
between the costs of investment and the delivery of the bene¬ts. Political
decisions are often taken on a very short-term basis and the challenge
is to demonstrate the bene¬ts of the actions which need to be taken
for the long term ¦ The role of business is to transform the possibili-
ties into reality. And that means being severely practical “ undertak-
ing very focused research and then experimenting with the different
375
T E C H N O LO G Y F O R T H E LO N G E R T E R M




possibilities. The advantage of the fact that the energy business is now
global is that international companies can both access the knowledge
around the world and can then apply it very quickly throughout their
operations.


Mitigation technologies and potential in 2030
Table 11.2 summarises the various technologies and practices addressed in the
last few sections (including also those relating to methane and forestry addressed
in Chapter 10) and the possible contributions from different sectors both now
and by 2030 to the required reductions in greenhouse gases.63 Figure 11.23
shows a range of estimates from a number of studies for the mitigation of CO2e
emissions from the different sectors assuming different levels of the carbon
price in terms of $US per tonne of CO2e. Comparing these estimates with the
reductions in 2030 shown in Figure 11.4 indicates that, for a carbon price in the
range $US50“100 per tonne CO2e, the required mitigation is achievable to lead
to CO2e stabilisation at 450 ppm CO2e.


Technology for the longer term
This chapter has concentrated mostly on what can be achieved with available
and proven technology during the next few decades. It is also interesting to
speculate about the more distant future and what relatively new technologies
may become dominant during the twenty-¬rst century. In doing so, of course,
we are almost certainly going to paint a more conservative picture than will
actually occur. Imagine how well we would have done if asked in 1900 to specu-
late about technology change by 2000! Technology will certainly surprise us
with possibilities not thought of at the moment. But that need not deter us from
being speculative!
There is general agreement that a central component of a sustainable energy
future is the fuel cell that with high ef¬ciency converts hydrogen and oxygen
directly into electricity (see box). In the fuel cell the electrolytic process of
generating hydrogen and oxygen from water is reversed “ the energy released
by recombination of the hydrogen and oxygen is turned back into electrical
energy. Fuel cells can have high-ef¬ciency of 50“80% and they are pollution
free; their only output other than electricity and heat is water. They offer the
prospect of high-ef¬ciency, small-scale power generation. They can be made
in a large range of sizes suitable for use in transport vehicles or to act as
local sources of electrical power for homes, for commercial premises or for
many applications in industry. Much research and development has been put
376 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Fuel cell technology
H2



A fuel cell converts the chemical energy of a fuel
2H+ 2e“
+
directly into electricity without ¬rst burning it to
(“)
produce heat.64 It is similar to a battery in its con-
struction. Two electrodes (Figure 11.24) are sepa-
Electrolyte Load
l
rated by an electrolyte which transmits ions but
not electrons. Fuel cells possess high theoretical
(+)
ef¬ciency. Typical ef¬ciencies in practice are in the
1
2e“
2H+ /2 O2 +
H2O +
range of 40“80%.
Hydrogen for fuel cells may be supplied from
O2
a wide variety of sources, from coal65 or other
biomass (see Note 31), from natural gas,66 or
Figure 11.24 Schematic of a hydrogen“oxygen
from the hydrolysis of water using electricity
fuel cell. Hydrogen is supplied to the porous anode
generated from renewable sources such as wind
(negative electrode) where it dissociates into hydrogen
power or solar photovoltaic (PV) cells (see box on
ions (H+) and electrons. The H+ ions migrate through
the electrolyte (typically an acid) to the cathode page 364).
(positive electrode) where they combine with electrons
(supplied through the external electrical circuit) and
oxygen to form water.




2 km distance
AC
Wind Electrolyser Fuel cell
power
turbine Polymer pipeline



Heat
loads

H2 burner

Figure 11.25 Remote area power system, employing hydrogen and fuel cell technology,
supplying energy to a New Zealand farming community from a hill top wind turbine 2 km
away. Electricity from the wind turbine is used to generate hydrogen by electrolysis of
water. A polymer pipe 2 km long conveys the hydrogen to a fuel cell and/or hydrogen
burner so providing heat and power to the farming community. The pipe not only
provides a cheap way of transporting energy but also, by allowing pressure in the pipe to
vary, provides a useful amount of hydrogen storage.
377
T E C H N O LO G Y F O R T H E LO N G E R T E R M




into fuel cells in recent years that has con¬rmed their potential as an impor-
tant future technology. Although several technical challenges are yet to be
resolved, there is an expectation that fuel cells will come into widespread use
within the next decade.
Hydrogen for fuel cells can be generated from a wide variety of sources (see
box). The most obvious renewable source is through the hydrolysis of water
using electricity from PV cells exposed to sunlight or from wind turbines “ an
ef¬cient process, over 80% of the electrical energy can be stored in the hydro-
gen. There are many regions of the world where sunshine or wind is plentiful
and where suitable land not useful for other purposes would be readily avail-
able. The cost of electricity from PV or wind sources has been coming down
rapidly (Figure 11.18) “ a trend that will continue with technological advances
and with increased scale of production. The IEA BLUE Map scenario assumes
signi¬cant penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into the transport sector
well before 2050.
Hydrogen is also important for other reasons. It provides a medium for energy
storage and it can easily be transported by pipeline or bulk transport. An ef¬-
cient local rural application is shown in Figure 11.25. For larger and more gen-
eral applications, the main technical problem to be overcome is to ¬nd ef¬cient
and compact ways of storing hydrogen. Present technology (primarily in cylin-
ders at high pressure) is bulky and heavy, especially for use in transport vehi-
cles. A number of other possibilities are being explored. Other technologies for
local energy storage, for instance, ¬‚ywheels, super capacitors and superconduct-
ing magnetic energy storage (SMES), are also being actively explored.67 As the


Power from nuclear fusion
When at extremely high temperatures the nuclei of hydrogen (or one of its isotopes, deuterium or tritium)
are fused to form helium, a large amount of energy is released. This is the energy source that powers the
Sun. To make it work on Earth, deuterium and tritium are used; from 1 kg, 1 GW can be generated for
one day. The supply of material is essentially limitless and no unacceptable pollution is produced. A tem-
perature of 100 million degrees Celsius is required for the reaction to occur. To keep the hot plasma away
from the walls of the reaction vessel, it is con¬ned by strong magnetic ¬elds in a ˜magnetic bottle™ called a
Tokamak. The challenges are to create effective con¬nement and a robust vessel.
Fusion power has been produced on Earth at levels up to 16 MW.69 This has generated the con¬dence
in a consortium of countries to build a new power-station-scale device called ITER capable of 500 MW
with the object of demonstrating commercial viability. If this is successful, it is estimated that the ¬rst com-
mercial plant could be in operation within 30 years.
378 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




drive towards energy ef¬ciency becomes more vital, many of these will ¬nd
appropriate applications.
Most of the technology necessary for a hydrogen energy economy is avail-
able now.68 If its attractiveness from an environmental point of view were
recognised as a dominant reason for its rapid development, a hydrogen econ-
omy could take off more rapidly than most energy analysts are currently
predicting.
Iceland is a country that is in the forefront of the development of a hydrogen
economy and aspires to be largely free of the use of fossil fuels by 2030“40.
Much of its electricity already comes from hydroelectric or geothermal sources.
The ¬rst hydrogen fuel station in Iceland was opened in April 2003 and several
buses powered by fuel cells are its ¬rst customers.
Finally, in this section looking at the longer term, there is the possibility of
power from nuclear fusion, the energy that powers the Sun (see box). If this
can be harnessed, virtually limitless supplies of energy could be provided. The
result of the next phase in this programme of work will be watched with great
interest.


A zero carbon future
In Chapter 10 beginning on page 293, after an analysis of the increasing seri-
ousness of the consequences of global warming as the temperature rises, argu-
ments were put forward for setting a target for the increase of global average
temperature of no greater than 2 deg C above its pre-industrial level. Inspection
of the pro¬le of CO2 emissions in the IEA BLUE Map scenario published in Energy
Technology Perspectives 2008 (Figures 11.4 and 10.3), which aims to meet this tar-
get, shows that the current increase in emissions, year on year, halts before
2015 after which emissions begin to fall substantially and continuously. As is
eloquently stated by the IEA in their World Energy Outlook for 2008 (see box), to
achieve such a pro¬le will require extreme urgency and determination in apply-
ing the technologies and appropriate incentives included in the box on policy
instruments on page 370 and in Table 11.2, Figure 11.23 and summarised also in
Figures 11.26 and 11.27.
But will this be enough to meet the target of 2 ºC? The following six assump-
tions and uncertainties were pointed out in Chapter 10:

1. Is a stabilisation level of 450 ppm CO2e equivalent to the 2 degree target? It is
in fact only a best estimate providing a 50% chance of success.
2. Because 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions currently arise from tropi-
cal deforestation, the IEA BLUE Map scenario for emissions from the energy
sector will not get close to meeting the 2ºC target unless a slowing of tropical
Industrial CCS
100 Carbon capture and storage (CCS), new coal Biodiesel
Medium-cost forestation Waste
Coal-to-gas shift
Cofiring biomass
Wind; low penetration CCS; coal retrofit
Industrial feedstock substitution Industrial motor systems
CCS, enhanced oil recovery, new coal Avoided deforestation
50
Low-cost forestation
Livestock
Cost of abatement, ‚¬ per tCO2e




Nuclear

1 2 3 4 5
0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26


Standby losses
Abatement beyond ™business as usual,™ GtCO2e1 per year in 2030
Sugarcane biofuel
-50
1
GtCO2e “ gigaton of carbon dioxide equivalent: ”business as usual”
Fuel efficiency in vehicles
based on emissions growth driven mainly by increasing demand for
energy and transport around the world and by tropical deforestation
Water heating

Air-conditioning
-100
Lighting systems

Fuel efficiency in commercial vehicles


-150



Building insulation

Figure 11.26 Technical options for reducing greenhouse gases up to 2030 and their cost in euros per tonne
of carbon saved as estimated by workers in the Stockholm of¬ce of McKinsey & Company. Only some of the
main options are labelled. Options below the line produce net savings, above the line net costs. The x-axis
shows abatement for each of the options below ˜business as usual™ in GtCO2e per year. By 2030 they total
26 GtCO2e per year, enough to meet the 450 ppm stabilization curve shown in Figure 11.27.



Figure 11.27 Waymarks for ™Business as usual™
(IEA reference
2016
annual global energy carbon scenario)
• Emissions peak
di oxide emissions road map • Deforestation halved
• >10 CCS demo plants operating
60
to 2050 showing International 2010
• CO2 emissions
Energy Agency (IEA) Reference CCS = Carbon
targets set for 2020, Capture and Storage
scenario (red) and a pro¬le 2030, 2050
Annual global energy emissions Gt CO2




50
(green) aimed at targets of From 2010 onward
Rapid deployment:
< 2º C temperature rise from
• energy efficiency 2030
40
pre-industrial and 450 ppm CO2 • renewable energies • Deforestation halted
• CCS • Electricity >90% carbon free
stabilisation (cf Figure 10.3). • Energy use in buildings halved
The division between 30
2050
developed and developing
• Energy emissions
countries from today until <50% 1990 levels
Developing
• Surface transport
countries™ share
2050 is a construction based 20
>90% carbon-free
on the developed countries™
share, compared with that of
10
Developed
developing countries, peaking
countries™ share
earlier and reducing further e.g.
by at least 80% by 2050.. 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
380 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




deforestation begins now with its complete halting over the next twenty or
thirty years (Figure 10.3).
3. The uncertainty in climate“carbon-cycle feedback presented in Figure 10.3
shows that, even if tropical deforestation is halted completely, emissions reduc-
tions in the energy sector as in the IEA BLUE Map scenario do not adequately
allow for that feedback. To allow for likely values of that feedback, the emis-
sions reduction curve constructed in Figure 11.27 assumes a larger reduction
(from 1990, of 60% in global emissions or 50% in energy sector emissions) than
that provided in the IEA BLUE Map scenario.
4. Cooling from aerosols (Chapter 10 page 313“14) provides an offset to some
of the present warming. As pressure to reduce atmospheric pollution grows
and as the use of coal and oil is phased out, the concentration of aerosols
could reduce in future years faster than most scenarios suggest. These aero-
sol reductions will have to be matched by matching reductions in CO2 tar-
gets. But since reductions in aerosols take effect immediately (the lifetime
of aerosols in the lower atmosphere is only a few days), these matching CO2
reductions need to be anticipated. There is a need to prepare now for that
anticipation, for instance, by researching the most cost effective means of
removing substantial amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere as mentioned on
page 315.
5. It was assumed in Chapter 10 that some reduction of the concentration of
other greenhouse gases, namely methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons,
from their 2005 levels would be possible and would compensate at least par-
tially for the likely reductions in aerosols. Measures leading to these reduc-
tions need to be put in place but there is substantial uncertainty regarding
their effectiveness.
6. Given only a 50% chance of meeting the 2 ºC target, what are the chances
of avoiding higher global average temperature rises that would bring much
more severe consequences? For instance (see Tables 7.1, 7.5 and 7.6), with a
4 ºC target, irreversible melting of some of the polar ice sheets becomes much
more likely as does the possibility of changes in the large scale ocean cir-
culation “ in addition to much more severe impacts from extreme events.
This is a point raised by the UK Climate Change Committee, the independent
body appointed to give advice to the UK government about climate change
targets and action, in their ¬rst report of December 2008.70 In addition to rec-
ommending the aim of a 50% chance of no more than 2 ºC by 2100, they also
consider it important to ful¬l a further aim of less than 1% chance of 4 degrees
by 2100. They present estimates showing that an emissions pro¬le similar to
that of Figure 11.27 would be likely to meet these criteria although the carbon
dioxide equivalent concentration could reach at least 500 ppm by 2100 before
381
A ZERO C ARBON FUTURE




IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
In chapters 10 and 11, I have already referred extensively to the work of the International Energy Agency
(IEA) and to their Energy Technology Perspectives published in June 2008 that outlines an energy future
up to 2050 that aims at stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide consistent with a rise in global surface
temperature of less than 2 ºC. The IEA™s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the most important world
publication in the energy ¬eld. The WEO published in November 2008 includes extensive analysis of
greenhouse gas emissions from energy production. There follow some quotes from its Executive Summary,
beginning with the opening sentences. The italics are theirs.
The world™s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and con-
sumption are patently unsustainable “ environmentally, economically, socially. But that can “ and
must “ be altered; there™s still time to change the road we™re on. It is not an exaggeration to
claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central
energy challenges facing us today; securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and
effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, ef¬cient and environmentally benign system of
energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.
Preventing catastrophic and irreversible damage to the global climate ultimately requires a major
decarbonisation of the world energy sources. The 15th conference of the Parties to be held in
Copenhagen in November 2009, provides a vital opportunity to negotiate a new global climate
change policy regime for beyond 2012 ¦ The consequences for the global climate of policy inac-
tion are shocking ¦ The road from Copenhagen must be paved with more than good intentions.
Any agreement will have to take into account the importance of a handful of major emitters. The
¬ve largest emitters of energy-related CO2 “ China, the United States, the European Union, India
and Russia “ together account for almost two-thirds of global CO2 emissions ¦ The contributions
to emissions reductions made by China and the United States will be critical to reaching a stabi-
lisation goal.
The energy sector will have to play the central role in curbing emissions “ through major improve-
ments in ef¬ciency and rapid switching to renewables and other low-carbon technologies such
as carbon capture and storage (CCS) ¦ Governments have to put in place appropriate ¬nancial
incentives and regulatory frameworks that support both energy security and climate policy goals
in an integrated way.
The scale of the challenge in the 450 Policy Scenario ¦ The technology shift, if achievable, would
certainly be unprecedented in scale and speed of deployment. Increased public and private spend-
ing on research and development in the near term would be essential to develop the advanced
technologies needed to make the 450 Policy Scenario a reality is immense.
It is within the power of all governments, of producing and consuming countries alike, acting
alone or together, to steer the world towards a cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy
system. Time is running out and the time to act is now.
382 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Energy policy in the UK
A number of important reports concerned with energy policy have been published in the UK since the
year 2000.
The ¬rst of these is Energy in a Changing Climate published in 2000 by the Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution (RCEP)74 “ an expert body that provides advice to government. It supported the
concept of ˜contraction and convergence™ (Figure 10.5) as a basis for future international action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and pointed out that application of this concept would imply a goal of 60%
reduction in UK emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. To achieve such a goal more effective measures
are needed to increase energy ef¬ciency (especially in buildings) and to encourage the growth of renew-
able energy sources especially by greatly increased R&D.
An Energy Review by the Policy and Innovation Unit (PIU) of the UK Cabinet Of¬ce,75 published in
2002, provided input into an Energy White Paper, Our Energy Future: Creating a Low Carbon Economy,
a policy statement by the UK government in 200376 that accepted the goal set by the RCEP of a 60%
reduction in emissions by 2050. An estimate in the PIU review of the cost to the UK economy of realising
the RCEP goal is expressed as a possible slowing in the growth of the UK economy of six months over the
50-year period.
A further Energy White Paper was introduced in 2007 and in November 2008, a Climate Change Bill
was passed by Parliament that legislates mandatory targets of an 80% reduction of national CO2e emis-
sions from 1990 levels by 2050 and of 26% by 2020.77 It also provides for revision of these targets should
the Climate Change Committee, that is also set up by the Bill, deem it necessary. The challenge to the
government and the country is the practical realization of these targets.




turning down in the 22nd century. However, they also show that emissions
pro¬les that peak later than 2016 are unlikely to meet either of the criteria.71
As mentioned in chapter 10, page 315, similar arguments about the danger
of even smaller increases of global average temperature “ more than around
1 ºC “ have led James Hansen to argue that action needs to be organised to
remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to bring its concentrations back
to around 350 ppm.72

Taking all these six points on board emphasises emphatically that fundamen-
tal to the scienti¬c story I have presented is the move to a zero carbon future with
no signi¬cant net anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmos-
phere. Over the past two decades as our scienti¬c understanding has grown, it
has been increasingly realised that we must make this move as quickly as pos-
sible. A path towards achieving large reductions has been demonstrated by the
IEA and other bodies. It is achievable, affordable and will bring with it many
383
S UM M A RY




co-bene¬ts. The immediate challenge is to ensure that global CO2 emissions peak
well before 2020 and to begin now to work towards zero carbon by or even before
205073 “ which implies even tougher action than that presented in Figure 11.27.




SUMM ARY

This chapter has outlined the ways in which energy for human life and industry is
currently provided. Growth in conventional energy sources at the rate required to
meet the world™s future energy needs will generate greatly increased emissions of
greenhouse gases that will lead to unacceptable climate change. Such would not
be consistent with the agreements reached at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development at Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 when the countries
of the world committed themselves to the action necessary to address the prob-
lems of energy and the environment. The objective of the Climate Convention
agreed at that Conference requires that emissions of carbon dioxide be drastically
reduced so that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is stabi-
lised by the end of the twenty-¬rst century. As the IEA have stated in their World
Energy Outlook 2008, ˜What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution™
on a global scale. Necessary areas of action are the following.

• Many studies have shown that in most developed countries improvements in
energy ef¬ciency of 30“50% or more can be achieved at little or no net cost
and often with overall saving (see Figure 11.26). But industry and individuals will
require not just encouragement, but incentives if the savings are to be realised.
• A long-term energy strategy needs to be formulated nationally and internation-
ally, that addresses economic considerations alongside environmental and social
ones that takes into account inter alia the need for development of local energy
source as well as centralised ones and the requirement for energy security.
• Since no technology can provide a ˜silver bullet™ solution, all possibilities for
low-carbon energy must be explored and appropriately developed so as to
realise all effective contributions as rapidly as possible. Essential to this proc-
ess will be much increased investment in Research/Development.
• To stem the rapid growth of carbon dioxide emissions from coal and gas
¬red power stations, carbon capture and storage (CCS) must be installed
aggressively and urgently in new power stations and retro¬tted where pos-
sible in existing stations.
• Much of the necessary technology is available for renewable energy sources
(especially ˜modern™ biomass, wind and solar energy) to be developed and
384 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




implemented, so as to replace energy from fossil fuels. For this to be done on
an adequate scale, an economic framework with appropriate incentives needs
urgently to be set up. Policy options available include the removal of subsidies,
carbon or energy taxes (which recognise the environmental cost associated with
the use of fossil fuels) and tradeable permits coupled with capping of emissions.
• To meet the targets of 2 ºC global average temperature rise and 450 ppm
carbon dioxide equivalent stabilisation described in Chapter 10, rapid
decarbonisation must take place in all sectors of energy generation and use,
the aim being that before 2050 global electricity provision and most trans-
port must be carbon free (Figure 11.27). The overall aim is for a zero carbon
future to be realised as quickly as possible.
• Arrangements are urgently needed to ensure that technology is available for
all countries (including developing countries through technology transfer)
to develop their energy plans with high ef¬ciency and to deploy renewable
energy sources (for instance, local biomass, solar energy or wind genera-
tors) as widely as possible.
• World investment in the energy industry up to 2050 (including by consumers
in capital equipment that consumes energy, e.g. in motor vehicles) in the IEA
Reference scenario (i.e. business-as-usual) is estimated to be about $US250
trillion (million million) or about 6% of cumulative world GDP over the period.
For the IEA Blue Map scenario the additional investment needs are estimated
as $US45 trillion, an increase of 18% over the Reference scenario. The IEA also
point out that, compared with the Reference scenario, the BLUE Map scenario
will result in fuel savings over the period 2005 to 2050, amounting to about
$US50 trillion “ of the same order as the increased investment required.

These actions imply a technological revolution on a scale and at a rate of
change much greater than any the world has yet experienced “ a revolu-
tion that involves the whole world community working together in unprec-
edented cooperation both in bringing it about and enjoying its bene¬ts. It
demands clear policies, commitment and resolve on the part of governments,
industries and individual consumers. Because of the long life time of energy
infrastructure (e.g. power stations) and also because of the time required for
the changes required to be realised, there is an inescapable urgency about
the actions to be taken. As the World Energy Council pointed out over 15
years ago, ˜the real challenge is to communicate the reality that the switch to
alternative forms of supply will take many decades, and thus the realisation of
the need, and commencement of the appropriate action, must be now™ (their
italics).78 If that was true in 1993 it even more true now (my italics!).
385
QUESTIONS




Q U E S TI O N S
1 Estimate how much energy you use per year in your home or your apart-
ment. How much of this comes from fossil fuels? What does it contribute to
emissions of carbon dioxide?
2 Estimate how much energy your car uses per year. What does this contrib-
ute to emissions of carbon dioxide?
3 Look up estimates made at different times over the last 30 years of the size
of world reserves of coal, oil and gas. What do you deduce from the trend
of these estimates?
4 Estimate annual energy saving for your country as a result of: (1) unneces-
sary lights in all homes being switched off; (2) all homes changing all light
bulbs to low-energy ones; (3) all homes being maintained 1°C cooler during
the winter.
5 Find out for your country the fuel sources that contribute to electricity
supply. Suppose a typical home heated by electricity in the winter is con-
verted to gas heating, what would be the change in annual carbon dioxide
emissions?
6 Find out about the cost of heat pumps and building insulation. For a typical
building, compare the costs (capital and running costs) of reducing by 75%
the energy required to heat it by installing heat pumps or by adding to the
insulation.
7 Visit a large electrical store and collate information relating to the energy
consumption and the performance of domestic appliances: refrigerators,
cookers, microwave ovens and washing machines. Which do you think are
the most energy ef¬cient and how do they compare with the least energy
ef¬cient? Also how well labelled were the appliances with respect to energy
consumption and ef¬ciency?
8 Consider a ¬‚at-roofed house of typical size in a warm, sunny country with
a ¬‚at roof incorporating 50 mm thickness of insulation (refer to Table 11.1).
Estimate the extra energy that would have to be removed by air condition-
ing if the roof were painted black rather than white. How much would this
be reduced if the insulation were increased to a thickness of 150 mm?
9 Rework the calculations of total heating required for the building considered
in Table 11.1 supposing insulation 250 mm thick (the Danish standard) were
installed in the cavity walls and in the roof.
10 Look up articles about the environmental and social impact of large dams.
Do you consider the bene¬ts of the power generated by hydroelectric
means are worth the environmental and social damage?
386 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




Suppose an area of 10 km2 was available for use for renewable energy
11
sources, to grow biomass, to mount PV solar cells or to mount wind gen-
erators. What criteria would determine which use would be most effective?
Compare the effectiveness for each use in a typical area of your country.
12 What do you consider the most important factors that prevent the greater
use of nuclear energy? How do you think their seriousness compares with
the costs or damages arising from other forms of energy production?
13 In the IPCC 1995 Report, Chapter 19, you will ¬nd information about the
LESS scenarios. In particular, estimates are provided, for different alterna-
tives, of the amount of land that will be needed in different parts of the
world for the production of energy from biomass. For your own country or
region, ¬nd out how easily, on the timescale required, it is likely that this
amount of land could be provided. What would be the likely consequences
arising from using the land for biomass production rather than for other
purposes?
14 In making arguments for a carbon tax would you attempt to relate it to the
likely cost of damage from global warming (Chapter 9), or would you relate
it to what is required to enable appropriate renewable energies to compete
at an adequate level? Find recent cost information about different renew-
able energies and estimate the level of carbon tax that would enable there
to be greater employment of different forms of renewable energy: (1) at the
present time, (2) in 2020.
15 In discussing policy options, attention is often given to ˜win“win™ situations
or to those with a ˜double dividend™, i.e. situations in which, when a partic-
ular action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, additional bene¬ts
arise as a bonus. Describe examples of such situations.
16 Of the policy options listed towards the end of the chapter, which do you
think could be most effective in your country?
17 List the various environmental impacts of different renewable energy
sources, biomass, wind, solar PV and marine (tidal and wave). How would
you assess the seriousness of these impacts compared with the advantages
to the environment of the contribution from these sources to the reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions?
18 Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of local energy sources as
opposed to centralised energy provision through large grid networks.
Identify locations in the world known to you where local or centralised
would be most appropriate.
19 Compare how the elements in the Kaya Identity “ energy intensity, carbon
intensity, GDP per capita and population“have changed in a sample group
387
FURTHER READING AND REFERENCE




of countries over the last 20 years. Comment on the differences between
the countries and the possible reasons for them.
20 In a speech on Energy in Washington on 17 July 2008, Al Gore referred to
striking examples of deliberate and rapid actions taken by US Presidents in
the past “ by Franklin Roosevelt in the Lease“Lend programme in 1941 and
by John F. Kennedy who launched the Apollo project in 1961. He proposed
that deliberate action should now be taken by the United States to tackle the
problem of climate change and proposed, for instance, that a target for the
US could be set of carbon-free electricity within the next 10 years. Re¬‚ect on
the bene¬ts to the world and to the United States of these particular actions
in the past and compare them with the challenge of climate change now.
21 Suppose the net cooling from aerosols were halved from 2050 onwards
and that greenhouse gases other than CO2 were still at their 1990 levels,
estimate the change in pro¬le of further reductions of CO2 that would be
necessary to maintain the 450 ppm CO2e stabilisation target. Does your
answer require withdrawal of CO2 already in the atmosphere between 2050
and 2100 (refer to Figure 10.3)? If so, make an estimate of how much and
investigate what means might accomplish it.




FURTHER READING AND REFERENCE
Metz, B., Davidson, O., Bosch, P., Dave, R., Meyer, L. (eds) 2007. Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Technical Summary
Chapter 2 Framing issues (e.g. links to sustainable development, integrated
assessment)
Chapter 3 Issues relating to mitigation in the long-term context
Chapter 4 Energy supply
Chapter 5 Transport and its infrastructure
Chapter 6 Residential and commercial buildings
Chapter 7 Industry
Chapter 10 Waste management
Chapter 11 Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective
Chapter 12 Sustainable development and mitigation
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2007.
Part A Global energy prospects
Part B China™s energy prospects
Part C India™s energy prospects
388 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E




International` Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008 (published in November
2008, about 500 pages including many ¬gures; contains detail upto 2030 of the
IEA Reference scenario and of Scenarios designed to meet the challenge of the
environment and climate change.)
International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
(chapters on energy scenarios, different sectors and technologies)
Stern, N. 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press. The Stern Review: especially chapters in Part III on the economics of
mitigation.
Boyle, G., Everett, R., Ramage, J. (eds.) 2003. Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power
for a Sustainable Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Scienti¬c American, Special Issue on Energy™s future beyond carbon, September 2006
(including novel technologies and a hydrogen future).
Monbiot, G. 2007 Heat: How to Stop the Planets from Burning. London: Allen Lane.
A lively presentation of some of the technical, political and personal dilemmas.



N OTE S F O R C HA P TE R 11
1 1 toe = 11.7 MWh = 4.19 — 1010 J; Lovins, A. B., Lovins, L. H. 1997. Factor Four, Doubling
1 Gtoe = 1.9 — 1018 J = 1.9 EJ; Wealth: Halving Resource Use. London: Earthscan.
15 More detail of heat pumps and their applications
1 toe per day = 485 kW;
in Smith, P. F. 2003. Sustainability at the Cutting Edge.
1 toe per year = 1.33 kW.
London: Architectural Press, pp. 45“50.
2 Report of G8 Renewable Energy Task Force, July
16 From National Academy of Sciences. 1992. Policy
2001.
Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Washington, DC:
3 International Energy Agency. 2008. World Energy
National Academy Press, Chapter 21.
Outlook 2008. Paris: International Energy Agency.
17 Smith, P.F. 2007. Sustainability at the Cutting Edge,
4 International Energy Agency. 2008. Energy Technology
second edition. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Perspectives. Paris: International Energy Agency.
18 ibid, pp. 135“7.
5 Ibid., p. 55ff.
19 Smith, P.F. 2001. Architecture in a Climate of Change.
6 Ibid., pp. 127ff.
London: Architectural Press.
7 Ibid., pp. 221ff.
20 See, for instance, von Weizacker, E., Lovins, A. B.,
8 Socolow, R.H., Pacala, S.W. 2006. Scienti¬c American.,
Lovins, L. H. 1997. Factor Four, Doubling Wealth:
295, 28“35.
Halving Resource Use. London: Earthscan, pp. 28“9.
9 See Chapter 9, page 272.
21 For instance Roaf, S. et al. 2001. Ecohouse: a Design
10 That government expenditure on energy R&D in
Guide. London: Architectural Press.
the UK is now less than 5% of what it was 20 years
22 See www.zedfactory.com/bedzed/bedzed.html.
ago provides an illustration of lack of commitment
23 Note that the air transport fraction should be at
or urgency on the government™s part.
least doubled to allow for the effects of increased
11 IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2006, Table 14.6.
high cloud mentioned in Chapter 3 on page 63.
12 World Energy Council. 1993. Energy for Tomorrow™s
24 See Mobility Report of World Business Council on
World: The Realities, the Real Options and the Agenda for
Sustainable Development:www.wbcsd.ch.
Achievement. New York: World Energy Council, p. 122.
25 More detail in Moomaw, W.R., Moreira 2001. Section
13 WEC, Energy for Tomorrow™s World, p. 113.
3.4, in Metz, J.R., Davidson, O., Swart, R., Pan, J.,
14 Ways of achieving large reductions in all these
(eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.
sectors are described by von Weizacker, E.,
389
N OT E S F O R C H A P T E R 11



26 From the Summary for policymakers, in Penner, J., 36 For more information see IEA, Energy Technology
Lister D., Griggs, D.J., Dokken, D.J., Mcfarland, M. Perspectives, Chapter 12, from where the numbers
(eds.) 1999. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. A for hydro potential quoted here have been taken.
Special Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge 37 See review by Loening, A. 2003. Land¬ll gas and
University Press. related energy sources; anaerobic digesters; biomass
27 For more detail on industrial emissions and possible energy systems. In Issues in Environmental Science
reductions see Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA, and Technology, No. 19. Cambridge: Royal Society of
Chapter 12. Chemistry, pp. 69“88.
28 From speech by Lord Browne, BP Chief Executive 38 Moomaw and Moreira, Section 3.8.4.3.2 in Metz
to the Institutional Investors Group, London, 26 et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.
November 2003. 39 Twidell, J., Weir, T. 1986. Renewable Energy Resources.
29 For example, British Sugar with an annual turno- London: E. and F. Spon, p. 291.
ver in 1992 of £700 million spent £21 million per 40 See review by Loening A. 2003.
year on energy. Through low-grade heat recovery, 41 From Report of the Renewable Energy Advisory Group,
co-generation schemes and better control of heat- Energy Paper No. 60. 1992. London: UK Department
ing and lighting, the spend on energy per tonne of Trade and Industry.
of sugar had been reduced by 41% from that in 42 These projects are supported by the Shell Foundation
1980 (example quoted in Energy, Environment and (www.shellfoundation.org), a charity set up to pro-
Pro¬ts. 1993. London: Energy Ef¬ciency Of¬ce of the mote sustainable energy for the Third World.
Department of the Environment). 43 See Incineration of Waste. 1993. 17th Report of the
30 See International Energy Agency, Capturing CO2: Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution.
www.ieagreen.org.uk; also Furnival S. 2006 Carbon London: HMSO, pp. 43“7.
capture and storage, Physics World, 19, 24“27. Also 44 Sustainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges, report by
see IPCC Special Report. Metz, B. et al. (eds.) 2005 Royal Society of London 2008: www.royalsoc.org.
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Cambridge: 45 Tollefson, J. 2008. Not your father™s biofuels. Nature,
Cambridge University Press. Also available from 451, 880“3. From ¬rst to second generation biofuel
www.ipcc.ch. technologies, International Energy Agency, IEA,
31 Carbonaceous fuel is burnt to form carbon monox- paris 2008, for a discussion of the technology™s
ide, CO, which then reacts with steam according to status, also available at http://www.iea.org/Textbase/
the equation CO + H2O = carbon dioxide + H2. publications/free_new_desc.acp?PUBS_ID=2074
32 International Energy Agency, Energy Technology 46 See In¬eld, D., Rowley, P. 2003. Renewable energy:
Perspectives 2008, pp. 134“5 technology considerations and electricity integration.
33 See Scienti¬c American, 295, 52“9, 2006. Issues in Environmental Science and Technology, No. 19.
34 In countries such as the UK, there are substan- Cambridge: Royal Society of Chemistry, pp. 49“68.
tial quantities of plutonium now in surplus from 47 Martinot, E. et al. 2002. Renewable energy markets
military programmes that could be used in nuclear in developing countries. Annual Review of Energy and
power stations (and degraded in the process) “ the Environment, 27, 309“48.
assisting with greenhouse gas reductions in the 48 Twidell and Weir, Renewable Energy Resources, p. 252.
medium term and not adding to the proliferation 49 Martinot et al. 2002.
problem. See Wilkinson, W. L. 2001. Management 50 Smith, P.F. 2001. Architecture in a Climate of Change.
of the UK plutonium stockpile: the economic case London: Architectural Press.
for burning as MOX in new PWRs. Interdisciplinary 51 For a summary of current technology see IEA,
Science Reviews, 26, 303“6. Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA, Chapter 11.
35 ˜Large™ hydro applies to schemes greater than 10 52 See solar energy news feature in Nature, 2006, 443,
MW in capacity; ˜small™ hydro to schemes smaller 19“24.
than 10 MW. 53 Martinot et al. 2002.
390 E N E RG Y A N D T R A N S P O R T F O R T H E F U T U R E



54 http://www.grameen-info.org/grameen/gshakti/ 67 See Swarup, R. 2007. Physics World, 20, 42“5.
index.html. 68 See Scienti¬c American, 295, 70“77, 2006.
55 Renewables for Heating and Cooling, 2007, 69 McCraken, G., Stott, P. 2004. Fusion, the Energy of the
International Energy Agency, Paris, available at: Universe. New York: Elsevier/Academic Press.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_ 70 The Committee on Climate Change, www.theccc.
desc.asp/?PUBS_ID=1975 org.uk/reports, Inaugural Report December 2008,
56 See www.tidalelectric.com. Building a low-carbon economy “ the UK™s contribution to
57 See Boyle, G. 1996. Renewable Energy Power for a tackling climate change, Part 1, the 2050 target.
Sustainable Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 71 The IEA World Energy Outlook published in
58 See Elliott, D. 2003. Sustainable energy: choices, December 2008 presents a 450 ppm scenario
problems and opportunities. Issues in Environmental that differs from that in their Energy Technology
Science and Technology No. 19. Cambridge: Royal Perspectives of June 2008. In particular, without
Society of Chemistry, pp. 19“47. extensive early retirement of existing power
59 Energy: The Changing Climate. 2000. 22nd Report of stations and other energy capital, it is not
the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. considered possible to achieve a peak of CO2
London: Stationery Of¬ce, p. 81. emissions before 2020. Therefore, although still
60 From speech by Lord Browne, BP Chief Executive, demanding, their new scenario weakens the
to the Institutional Investors Group, London, 26 possibility of achieving the 2 ºC target and fails
November 2003. to meet the criteria set by the UK Committee on
61 Based on Summary for policymakers. Section 4.4, in Climate Change.
Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H. (eds.) 1996. 72 James Hansen, Bjerknes Lecture at American
Climate Change 1995: Impacts Adaptations and Mitigations Geophysical Union, 17 December 2008,
of Climate Change: Scienti¬c“Technical Analyses. Contribution www.columbia.edu/˜jeh1/2008/
of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the AGUBjerknes_20081217.pdf.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: 73 see for instance, www.climatesafety.org; or www.
Cambridge University Press. zerocarbonbritain, published by Centre for
62 See Mullins, F. 2003. Emissions trading schemes: are Alternative Technology, Machynlleth, Wales.
they a licence to pollute? Issues in Environmental Science 74 www.rcep.org.uk
and Technology No.19. Cambridge: Royal Society of 75 www.cabinet-of¬ce.gov.uk/innovation/2002/energy/
Chemistry, pp. 89“103. report/index.htm
63 The material for this section comes from Chapter 76 www.dti.gov.uk/energy/whitepaper/index.shtml
11, Section 11.3 (also summarised in the Summary 77 www.defra.gov.uk
for Policymakers) of Metz et al. (eds.) Climate Change 78 From Energy for Tomorrow™s World: the Realities, the
2007: Mitigation. Real Options and the Agenda for Achievement. WEC
64 For a recent review see Eikerling, M. et al. 2007. Commission Report. NewYork: World Energy
Physics World, 20, 32“6. Council, 1993, p. 88.
65 For hydrogen from coal see Liang-Shih Fan. 2007, 79 From Energy for Tomorrow™s World: the Realities, the
Physics World, 20, 37“41. Real Options and the Agenda for Achievement. WEC
66 By reacting natural gas (methane CH4) with steam Commission Report. NewYork: World Energy
through the reaction 2H2O + CH4 = CO2 + 4H2. Council, 1993, p.88.
12
The global village




Claude Monet™s views of the River Thames and the Houses of Parliament show the sun struggling to shine
through London™s smog-laden atmosphere (1904).




T HE PRECEDING chapters have considered the various strands of the global
warming story and the action that should be taken. In this last chapter I
want ¬rst to present some of the challenges of global warming, especially those
which arise because of its global nature. I then want to put global warming in
the context of other major global problems faced by humankind.
392 T H E G LO BA L V I L L AG E




Global warming “ global pollution
A hundred years ago, the French painter Claude Monet spent time in London
and painted wonderful pictures of the light coming through the smog. London
was blighted by intense local pollution “ from domestic and industrial chimneys
around London itself. Thanks to the Clean Air Acts beginning in the 1950s,
those awful smogs belong to the past “ although London™s atmosphere could be
still cleaner.
Today, however, it is not just local pollution that is a problem but global pol-
lution. Small amounts of pollution for which each of us are responsible are
affecting everyone in the world. The ¬ rst example to come to light was in the
1970s and early 1980s when it was realised that very small quantities of chlo-
ro¬‚uorocarbons (CFCs) emitted to the atmosphere from leaking refrigerators,
aerosol cans or some industrial processes resulted in signi¬cant degradation
of the ozone layer. The problem was highlighted by the discovery of the ozone
hole in 1985. Beginning in 1987, an international mechanism for tackling and
solving this problem was established through the Montreal Protocol through
which all nations contributing to it agreed to phase out their emissions
of harmful substances. The richer nations involved also agreed to provide
¬ nance and technology transfer to assist developing countries to comply. A
way forward for addressing global environmental problems was therefore
charted.
The second example of global pollution is that of global warming, the sub-
ject of this book. Greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere from the burn-
ing of fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas and from other human activities such as
widespread deforestation are leading to damaging climate change. This is a
very much larger and more challenging problem to tackle than that of ozone
depletion; it strikes so much nearer to the core of human resources and activi-
ties “ such as energy and transport “ upon which our quality of life depends.
However, we have been at pains to point out, tackle it we must “ although, as we
have also been keen to explain, we can do so in the realisation that abatement
of the use of fossil fuels need not destroy or even diminish our quality of life; it
should actually improve it!
Global pollution demands global solutions. These need to address human atti-
tudes broadly, for instance those concerned with resource use, lifestyle, wealth
and poverty. They must also involve human society at all levels of aggregation “
international organisations, nations with their national and local governments,
large and small industry and businesses, non-governmental organisations
(e.g churches) and individuals.
393
S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y “ A L S O A G LO BA L C H A L L E N G E




Sustainability “ also a global challenge
To bring in the broader context demanded by global solutions, in Chapters 8
and 9 the concept of sustainable development was introduced. Sustainability is a
modern term that is widely used that takes into account our breadth of concern

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