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the atmosphere due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and
Greenhouse gas emissions The release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,
causing global warming
Greenhouse gases Molecules in the Earth™s atmosphere such as carbon dioxide
(CO2 ), methane (CH4 ) and CFCs which warm the atmosphere because they
absorb some of the thermal radiation emitted from the Earth™s surface (see the
greenhouse effect)
GtC Gigatonnes of carbon (C) (1 gigatonne = 109 tonnes). 1 GtC = 3.7 Gt
carbon dioxide
GWP Global warming potential: the ratio of the enhanced greenhouse effect of
any gas compared with that of carbon dioxide
Heat capacity The amount of heat input required to change the temperature of a
substance by 1 —¦ C. Water has a high heat capacity so it takes a large amount of
heat input to give it a small rise in temperature
Hectopascal (hPa) Unit of atmospheric pressure equal to millibar. Typical
pressure at the surface is 1000 hPa
Hydrological (water) cycle The exchange of water between the atmosphere, the
land and the oceans
Hydro-power The use of water-power to generate electricity
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “ the world scienti¬c body
assessing global warming
Isotopes Different forms of an element with different atomic masses; an element
is de¬ned by the number of protons its nucleus contains, but the number of
neutrons may vary, giving different isotopes. For example, the nucleus of a
carbon atom contains six protons. The most common isotope of carbon is 12 C,
with six neutrons making up an atomic mass of 12. One of the other isotopes is
C, with eight neutrons, giving an atomic mass of 14. Carbon-containing
compounds such as carbon dioxide will contain a mixture of 12 C and 14 C
isotopes. See also deuterium, tritium
Latent heat The heat absorbed when a substance changes from liquid to gas
(evaporation), for example when water evaporates from the sea surface using
the Sun™s energy. It is given out when a substance changes from gas to liquid
(condensation), for example when clouds are formed in the atmosphere
Milankovitch forcing The imposition of regularity on climate change triggered
by regular changes in distribution of solar radiation (see Milankovitch theory)
Milankovitch theory The idea that major ice ages of the past may be linked with
regular variations in the Earth™s orbit around the sun, leading to varying
distribution of incoming solar radiation
Glossary 337

Millibar (mb) Unit of atmospheric pressure equal to hectopascal. Typical
pressure at the surface is 1000 mb
MINK Region of the United States comprising the states of Missouri, Iowa,
Nebraska and Kansas, used for a detailed climate study by the US Department
of Energy
Mole Fraction (or mixing ratio) The ratio of the number of moles of a constituent
in a given volume to the total number of moles of all constituents in that
volume. It differs from volume mixing ratio (expressed for instance in ppmv
etc.), by the corrections for non ideality of gases “ that is signi¬cant relative to
measurement precision for many greenhouse gases
Molecule Two or more atoms of one or more elements chemically combined in
¬xed proportions. For example, atoms of the elements carbon (C) and oxygen
(O) are chemically bonded in the proportion one to two to make molecules of
the compound carbon dioxide (CO2 ). Molecules can also be formed of a single
element, for example ozone (O3 )
Monsoon Particular seasonal weather patterns in sub-tropical regions which are
connected with particular periods of heavy rainfall
Neutron A component of most atomic nuclei without electric charge, of
approximately the same mass as the proton
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; a consortium
of thirty countries (including the members of the European Union, Australia,
Canada, Japan and the USA) that share commitment to democratic government
and market economy
Ozone hole A region of the atmosphere over Antarctica where, during spring in
the southern hemisphere, about half the atmospheric ozone disappears
Paleoclimatology The reconstruction of ancient climates by such means as
ice-core measurements. These use the ratios of different isotopes of oxygen in
different samples taken from a deep ice ˜core™ to determine the temperature in
the atmosphere when the sample condensed as snow in the clouds. The deeper
the origin of the sample, the longer ago the snow became ice (compressed
under the weight of more snowfall)
Parameterisation In climate models, this term refers to the technique of
representing processes in terms of an algorithm (a process of step by step
calculation) and appropriate quantities (or parameters)
Passive solar design The design of buildings to maximize use of solar radiation.
A wall designed as a passive solar energy collector is called a solar wall
Photosynthesis The series of chemical reactions by which plants take in the sun™s
energy, carbon dioxide and water vapour to form materials for growth, and give
out oxygen. Anaerobic photosynthesis takes place in the absence of oxygen
Phytoplankton Minute forms of plant life in the oceans
ppb parts per billion (thousand million) “ measurement of mixing ratio (see mole
fraction) or concentration
ppm parts per million “ measurement of mixing ratio (see mole fraction) or
Precautionary Principle The principle of prevention being better than cure,
applied to potential environmental degradation
338 Glossary

Primary energy Energy sources, such as fossil fuels, nuclear or wind power,
which are not used directly for energy but transformed into light, useful heat,
motor power and so on. For example, a coal-¬red power station which
generates electricity uses coal as its primary energy
Proton A positively charged component of the atomic nucleus
PV Photovoltaic: a solar cell often made of silicon which converts solar radiation
into electricity
Radiation budget The breakdown of the radiation which enters and leaves the
Earth™s atmosphere. The quantity of solar radiation entering the atmosphere
from space on average is balanced by the thermal radiation leaving the Earth™s
surface and the atmosphere
Radiative forcing The change in average net radiation at the top of the
troposphere (the lower atmosphere) which occurs because of a change in the
concentration of a greenhouse gas or because of some other change in the
overall climate system. Cloud radiative forcing is the change in the net
radiation at the top of the troposphere due to the presence of the cloud
Reforestation Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests
but that have been converted to some other use
Renewable energy Energy sources which are not depleted by use, for example
hydro-power, PV solar cells, wind power and coppicing
Respiration The series of chemical reactions by which plants and animals break
down stored foods with the use of oxygen to give energy, carbon dioxide and
water vapour
Sequestration Removal and storage, for example, carbon dioxide taken from the
atmosphere into plants via photosynthesis, or the storage of carbon dioxide in
old oil or gas wells
Sink Any process, activity or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, aerosol
or precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere
Solar radiation Energy from the Sun
Sonde A device sent into the atmosphere for instance by balloon to obtain
information such as temperature and atmospheric pressure, and which sends
back information by radio
Stewardship The attitude that human beings should see the Earth as a garden to
be cultivated rather than a treasury to be raided. (See also sustainable
Stratosphere The region of the region of the atmosphere between about 10 and
50 km altitude where the temperature increases with height and where the
ozone layer is situated
Sustainable development Development which meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs
Thermal radiation Radiation emitted by all bodies, in amounts depending on
their temperature. Hot bodies emit more radiation than cold ones
Thermodynamics The First Law of thermodynamics expresses that in any
physical or chemical process energy is conserved (i.e. it is neither created or
destroyed). The Second Law of thermodynamics states that it is not possible to
construct a device which only takes heat energy from a reservoir and turns it
Glossary 339

into other forms of energy or which only delivers the heat energy to another
reservoir at a different temperature. The Law further provides a formula for the
maximum ef¬ciency of a heat engine which takes heat from a cooler body and
delivers it to a hotter one
Thermohaline Circulation (THC) Large-scale density driven circulation in the
ocean caused by differences in temperature and salinity
Transpiration The transfer of water from plants to the atmosphere
Tritium Radioactive isotope of hydrogen, used to trace the spread of radioactivity
in the ocean after atomic bomb tests, and hence to map ocean currents
Tropical cyclone A storm or wind system rotating around a central area of low
atmospheric pressure and occurring in tropical regions. They can be of great
strength and are also called hurricanes and typhoons. Tornadoes are much
smaller storms of similar violence
Troposphere The region of the lower atmosphere up to a height of about 10 km
where the temperature falls with height and where convection is the dominant
process for transfer of heat in the vertical
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held at
Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, after which the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change was signed by 160 participating countries
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme “ one of the bodies that set up
the IPCC
UV Ultra-violet radiation
Watt Unit of power
WEC World Energy Council “ an international body with a broad membership of
both energy users and the energy industry
Wind farm Grouping of wind turbines for generating electric power
WMO World Meteorological Organization “ one of the bodies that set up the
Younger Dryas event Cold climatic event that occurred for a period of about
1500 years, interrupting the warming of the Earth after the last ice age (so
called because it was marked by the spread of an Arctic ¬‚ower, Dryas
octopetala). It was discovered by a study of paleoclimatic data
Zooplankton Minute forms of animal life in the ocean

Figures in italic, Tables in bold; B after page number signi¬es Box; n after page number signi¬es material in notes.

Amazonian forest
acid rain 51, 117, 172
dieback and carbon release 173B
adaptation 167, 188
drastic effect of loss 173B
cost of 270“1, 237
Annan, Ko¬, on competing futures 329
ecosystems and human communities 144
and mitigation, climate change 10“12, 11 Antarctica 99B, 124, 149
potential to reduce climate change cost to agriculture ice sheet in west vulnerable to disintegration 150, 186
164“9 ozone hole over 46, 229
Arctic 124
to climate change 178, 179, 179
Greenland ice cores 71, 72, 74
to crops and agricultural practices 189
adaptive capacity 144B, 145 Greenland ice sheet 149“50
Arrhenius, Svante 17B
in growth of food crops 164
aerosols 48, 50, 95, 260
hydrological study under climate change 158
in¬‚uence on climate change 127“8
smaller emissions in SRES scenarios 122 increased intensity of drought and ¬‚oods 160
sulphate 266n southeast, monsoon region, vulnerable to ¬‚oods and
droughts 161, 162
can change Earth™s albedo 251“2 atmosphere
effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide 250“1 20th century changes in 61, 62“3, 63
composition of 16, 16
heat transfer by convection 18, 19
damage in disasters not realised in economic terms 180
movement of carbon in and out 30, 30
forecasting for the Sahel 87B, 87
a partially chaotic system 83, 84“5B
prolonged droughts 5, 160
particles in 48“52
radiation budget 20“1, 21
adaptation, potential to reduce climate change cost 164“9
and food supply, impact of climate change 164“9 transfer of radiation 18, 19, 20
carbon dioxide fertilisation effect 165“6B atmosphere“ocean coupled models 88B, 97“98, 97
effect of temperature changes 165 atmospheric models
initialising data 82B
likely to affect countries differently 168“9
numerical, setting up 80“2B
matching crops to new climatic conditions 164“5
parameters and physical processes involved 78“79, 79
sensitivity of major crops during the 21st century 166,
atmospheric particles 117
sources 48“9
and vulnerability of water supplies 157“8, 165
reducing methane emissions 254 Australia, changing precipitation 127, 128
water use 155, 156
aid agencies, to prepare for more frequent and intense back to nature, not practical 199
disasters 325 Bangladesh 4
air transport 285 impact of sea level rise 150“4
greenhouse gas emissions 48, 283 loss of agricultural land 150“1

Index 341

potential for underground storage 290
possible responses 152
and the carbon cycle 29“40, 41
salt water intrusion affecting more agricultural land
choice of stabilisation levels 258“9
doubled 17B, 23, 120, 118“9, 122
vulnerability to storm surges 4, 151
cost of damage due to 185, 191
BedZED, a Zero Emission (fossil fuel) Development 283B
fertilisation effect 39, 40B, 166B
biodiversity loss 250
from deforestation 33, 251
biofuels 285B
increase since the Industrial Revolution 23
carbon dioxide concentrations 68, 69, 227
from wet wastes 297
atmospheric 32, 32
from wood plantations 297“8
contributions to 31, 33, 33, 34
integrated systems, China 295B
stabilisation of 254“8, 272“3
biological pump 34“5, 35“6B
carbon dioxide emissions 227
action essential for 21st century reductions 315
forest, carbon dioxide from 251
costs per tonne of carbon 232“3
from wood plantations 297
considering incremental damage cost 233
as a fuel 293“8
sensitive to discount rate 233
modern 292
from cars, reduction technologies 285B
traditional 293“4
future 41“2
a genuinely renewable resource 294
need to fall 255
growth for energy in industrialised countries 292, 298
increasing, ecosystems unable to cope 217
reducing fuel wood demand 294
per capita 257“8, 258
biomass burning
reductions 264
aerosols from 50
by large companies 329
cut if deforestation reduced 253
substantial savings possible, petrochemical industry 286
in homes, causes serious health problems 294
total emissions, 2001“2100, SRES and stabilisation
biomes 167, 169
scenarios 255, 257
climate a dominant factor in distribution 169, 171
omit effect of climate feedbacks 255, 257
A Brief History of Time, Hawking, Stephen 208
carbon emissions, anthropogenic, distribution among
Broecke, Professor Wallace 74
carbon reservoirs 30“1
Browne, Lord John
carbon intensity 272B
on carbon dioxide stabilisation 261
carbon isotopes 36“7B
on constructive action 329
carbon monoxide 48
on planning for the long term 310“11
carbon tax 307
Bruntland Commission, Our Common Future 226B
carbonates, in ocean bottom sediments 67B
Carson, Rachel, Silent Spring 197“8
energy conservation and ef¬ciency in 280“5
CFCs see chloro¬‚uorocarbons
passive solar gain 301B
change, human vulnerability to 8“9
solar energy in design 301B
chaotic systems 84“5B
passive solar design 300
Charles, Prince of Wales 326, 326B
Callendar, G.S. 17B
¬‚ooding 4“5
Canada, tree die“back 172
losses from natural disasters (1989“1996) 182
carbon cycle
Three Gorges project 293
and carbon dioxide 29“40, 41
Yunnan, integrated biogas systems 295B
possible effects of climate feedbacks 40B, 41
chloro¬‚uorocarbons 45“8, 263
carbon dioxide 28
controlled under the Montreal protocol 245“6
anthropogenic, transfer to oceans 34
destruction of ozone 45“6
atmospheric, increase in 8“9
greenhouse effect 46
capture and storage 287“92
replacement by other halocarbons 47
options for disposal/sequestration 287
342 Index

on human health 176“8
Christianity, caring for the Earth 205
increasing human use of fresh water resources 155“7
Clark, Professor William, on the conception and conduct of
overall impact of global warming 186“90
environmental research 328“9
positive 143“4
Clean Development Mechanism, Kyoto protocol 249B
possible 227
sea level rise 144“54
acted on by oceans 92“5
Climate Convention Objective
is it chaotic? 106
action essential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions
monitoring of parameters 222
natural variability 127
guidance on stabilisation levels 244, 258
past 56“76
realisation of 261“3
past stability 71“5
stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
simulations compared with observations 102“6
climate change 199
climate extremes
action to slow and stabilise 242“67
changes in 128“33
adaptation to 178“80
vulnerability of human populations to 64“5
costs 231“2, 238
and human health 176“7, 177B
anthropogenic 239
late 20th century 2“7
an integrated view 10“12, 11
climate modelling 77“114
costs 231“2, 238
future of 109“10
a near certainty 229
modelling the weather 77“85
complex network of changes 142“4
of regional anomalies 101“2
detection and attribution studies 104“5, 105
regional modelling 107“109
effects of ˜no regrets™ proposals 227“8
climate models 222
a global and long“term problem 325
regional 133, 135, 162
important role for communicators and educators
simple 121B
simple upwelling-diffusion model 121B, 121
likely to affect countries differently 166“7
climate prediction models 95“198
longer“term 135“6
comparison with observations 102“6
mitigation of 11, 231, 234“5, 235, 239
model validation 100“4
modelling the impact on world food supply
use for predicting future climate change 105
climate sensitivity 95, 124
need for better and clearer information 323“4
best estimate for (IPPC) 120
other possible in¬‚uential factors 137“40
cloud radiation feedback and uncertainty 222“3
past 1“2
climate system 88“9
predicted rate of change is rapid 10
feedbacks in 89“94
regional patterns 124“8
oceans redistribute heat throughout 92“3
see also climate extremes
space observation of 223, 226B
Climate Change Convention xxxi, 221, 225“6, 242“4,
unexpected changes 135“6
261, 324
climatic niches, for trees 170, 171, 172
extracts 243B
climatic variability 57, 60“1
objectives, short and long-term 242“3
Precautionary Principle 228
cloud radiative forcing 92B, 92
climate change impacts 143“196
interfere with transfer of radiation 90“1
on agriculture and food supply 164“9
layer and convective 95
cannot be quanti¬ed in monetary cost alone 187“8
see also feedbacks, cloud-radiation
components included in projection of 218, 224
co-generation, of heat and power 286
costing the total impacts 182“6
coal see fossil fuels
costs, extreme events 178“82
coastal wetlands, loss of 154
on ecosystems 167“74, 195
coral atolls
on fresh water resources 157“64
Index 343

warming processes 14“16
important marine ecosystems in 176
see also Daisyworld
and sea“level rise 153
Earth in the Balance, Al Gore 197, 208
corals 67B
Earth Radiative Budget Experiment (ERBE) 94
crop wastes, fuel from 294
Earth™s orbit, variations in 70“2, 69
crops, use as fuels 297
eccentricity, of Earth™s orbit 70, 71
economists, new challenges for 325
Daisyworld 205
ecosystems 143, 217
and life on early Earth 203B
impact of climate change 174“6, 192
Dansgaard“Oeschger events 73
loss of species and biodiversity 173
Danube, River, shared water resource 157“8
on natural forests 170“3
deforestation 37, 39, 115“16, 250B, 253
will become unmatched to their environments 169
can lead to changes in rainfall 161
marine 174
carbon dioxide from 33, 251
and their environments (Lovelock) 202
and climate change 173B
unable to respond fast to global warming 167, 169
effects on climate in region of change 173B
wetland and mangrove, vulnerable to sea level rise
reduction in will slow greenhouse gas increase 251
tropical, carbon released into the atmosphere 173
Einstein, Albert, comment on the universe 205
in tropical regions 37, 39
El Ni˜ o, associated droughts and ¬‚oods 6“7, 7
delta regions, vulnerable to sea level rise 150“3
El Ni˜ o events 5“7, 13n, 127
Denmark, energy from wind power 299
adaptation of Peruvian farmers to 163
deserti¬cation 162, 163B
coral bleaching events 174
progress in drylands will increase with more droughts
disease epidemics associated with 175
large variation in ocean temperature 87, 87
developed countries 225
predictions up to a year ahead 87, 101
Climate Convention, short term objective 245
short-term variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide 40B
food surpluses likely under climate change 166
simple model 89B
developing countries 225
El Ni˜ o oscillation 89B
agriculture likely to decline with climate change 167
emission scenarios 42, 115“17
biomass projects in rural areas 295B
see also Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
less adaptive capacity 145
(ipcc); World Energy Council
loss of agricultural employment will lead to migration
emissions trading 248“9, 248B
reliance on traditional biomass 294
disparity in amounts used 269
technical advances in agriculture needed 167
from solar cells see photovoltaic (PV) cells
urgent need for large scale provision of simple stoves 294
from the Sun 300“5
will be very disadvantaged by global warming 185“6
future projections 272“8
discount accounting 233“4
renewable 290“306
diseases, increased spreading in a warmer world 175“6
¬nancial incentives 307
drought 4, 5, 160
some sources competitive 307
Africa 5, 160
support and ¬nance 306“10
in the Sahel 173B
traditional sources 269, 269
damage due to seriously under estimated 182
use of 270
due to drop in summer rainfall 127, 131
energy balance models 121, 121B
drylands 163, 163B
Energy in a Changing Climate, Royal Commission on
Environmental Pollution (RCEP) 313B
Earth 205
energy conservation and ef¬ciency in buildings 278“83
feedback and self-regulation 202“3
improvement of insulation 279, 280B, 280
orbital variations 69, 69, 70“2, 101, 106, 138“9
improving ef¬ciency of appliances 280B
stewards of 208“10
thermodynamic ef¬ciencies 278B
unity of 201“6
344 Index

future incidence 133, 134
energy conservation (cont.)
storms in Europe, 1980s and 1990s 2, 3
use of integrated building design 282“3
see also climate extremes; drought;
BedZED a Zero Emission (fossil fuel) Development
hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons; temperature
low energy buildings 282“3
energy generation
Fair Isle 299B, 307
ef¬ciency improvement possible 234
feedbacks 120, 173B, 202, 260
proven recoverable reserves of fossil fuels 270, 271
biological 36B, 39, 72
energy intensity 274, 276B
in the biosphere 39“40B, 173, 255, 257
and carbon intensity 272B
on the carbon cycle 118, 121, 135, 186
energy intensity index 272B
in the climate system 89“93
Energy Review, Policy and Innovation Unit (PIU), UK
and climate variation 71“2
Cabinet Of¬ce 313B
cloud-radiation 90“1, 95, 222“3
energy savings
hydrological cycle-deep ocean circulation 99, 99B
in industry 286“7
ice-albedo 94, 99
in transport 283“5
incorporated into climate prediction models 99
energy sector, signi¬cant policy initiatives required 309
lapse rate 112
England, eastern, Norfolk coast in need of protection 153
ocean-circulation 91“4, 95“6
environmental degradation 186, 322
positive and negative 39“40
environmental problems
water vapour 90, 111n
human-induced, impacts now 142
¬nancial incentives 306“8
long-term and potentially irreversible 225
for renewables 307
and our will to act 210“11
must be applied to solid, liquid or gaseous fuels 307“8
environmental refugees 167, 327
needed in area of research and development (R & D) 308
destabilising international order 186
¬‚oods/¬‚ooding 4“5, 160, 161, 162, 163“4
environmental research, conception and conduct 327“8
forest dieback 40B, 174, 173B
environmental science xxxi“xxxii
forest ¬res 3, 6
environmental stewardship, goal of 328“30
forest plantations, growth in 250B
environmental values 206“08
assessment and development of appropriate attitudes
deforestation 250B
and climate change 173B
equations, in a numerical atmospheric model 80B
impact of climate change 173“4
equity, principle of, international and intergenerational 226,
decline in health noticed 174
231B, 261
and projected rates of climate change 164“5
ethane 40
represent large store of carbon 175
ethanol 308
as sources and sinks of carbon 250“3
EU, proposed limit for global average temperature
trees cannot respond quickly to climate change 170“1
rise 261
tropical, destroyed 198
Europe, heatwaves 177B
fossil fuel reserves 135
exploitation 198“9
proven recoverable reserves 270, 272
of Earth™s biological resources 198“9
fossil fuels 198, 199, 268
of Earth™s mineral resources 198
burning in northern hemisphere 34
extreme events 2, 3
global impact of burning 323
changes in frequency/intensity of 188, 189, 189
increased burning 31, 33, 33
costing climate change impacts 179“84
rise in global emissions 245
disasters causing largest losses 183
ultimately recoverable 270
likely future costs 184“5
Fourier, Jean-Baptiste 17B
weather-related disasters (1990s), fatalities, economic
France, La Rance tidal barrage 306
and insured losses 183, 183, 186
fresh water resources
and disasters, adaptation to 179, 180
Index 345

Green Revolution 164
impact of climate change 157“64
greenhouse effect 16“21
increasing human use 155“8
basic science well known 16“17, 17“18B, 216
see also water; water supplies
complicated by feedbacks and regional variations 216“17
fuel cell technology 331, 311B, 312
enhanced effect 16, 23“5
sources of hydrogen 312
gases with an indirect effect 48
future generations, our responsibility to 200“1
natural effect 16, 23
runaway effect 22“3
Gaia hypothesis 201“3
greenhouse gas concentrations 117, 119
Earth seen as central 206“7
greenhouse gas emissions
Earth™s feedbacks and self-regulation 202“3
controlled by Kyoto protocol 247, 247
galactic cosmic ray ¬‚ux 139
from transport 283“4
Ganges“Bramaputra, River, shared water resource 156“7
stabilisation 245
gas turbine technology, ef¬cient 286
greenhouse gases 16, 16, 26“7n, 28“9, 65, 139, 235
geoengineering 229
conversion to carbon dioxide equivalents 120, 122, 141n
geothermal energy 305“6
a useful tool 260
glacier retreat, and rising sea level 146“7
estimates in SRES scenarios 33, 115“16
global average temperature
gases other than carbon dioxide 259“60
change in 10, 57“8, 135
generation from waste incineration 297
projections of 121“4
Kyoto Protocol 52, 247
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) 222
longer-term impacts of growth 185
Global Commons Institute (GCI), Contraction and
stabilisation target level 260
Convergence proposal 261“3, 262
to be returned to 1990 levels 245
global economics 231“39
see also emission scenarios
cost“bene¬t analysis 232, 233
Greenland ice cores
costs of mitigation and adaptation 231“2, 234“5, 235,
showing Younger Dryas event 74
variations in Arctic temperature 72, 73
debate on application of discount accounting
Greenland ice sheet, vulnerable to future melting 149“50
global food production 189
use and replenishment 160
rise in 164
withdrawal by large cities causing subsidence 153
see also agriculture
global village 322“32
Hawking, Stephen, A Brief History of Time 205
global warming
heat pumps 280B
20th century, not uniform 60“1
heat stress 176“7, 189
arguments for action concerning 228“9
heat transfer, by radiation or convection 17, 18
business-as-usual scenario 115, 116, 188
Heinrich events 75
challenges of 322“5
Hinduism 204
and deforestation 251“3
Holocene, long stable period 72
estimates of costs of damage 189, 232
Honduras, losses due to Hurricane Mitch 181
impact will not fall uniformly 323
honesty, humility and holism, in research 328
implications 237“8
human behaviour and activities, studies of 223
not the only problem 326“7
human health
overall balance sheet 238“9
impact of climate change 176“8
overall impact 188“92
problems from biomass burning 294
the problem 9“10
human“environment relationship 198
trends in 8“9
what the individual can do 329“30
as gardeners caring for the Earth 208“10, 328
global warming potential (GWP) 52, 55n
pro¬‚igate in use of world™s resources 228
global water cycle 155“6, 155
a special place in the universe 211
Gore, Al, Earth in the Balance 197, 208
346 Index

1995 report 104, 120, 123, 218
Hurricane Andrew 4
review of four cost studies 184
a huge weather-related loss 181B
2001 report 105, 120, 123
Hurricane George 179
assessments 218“19
Hurricane Gilbert 4
description of scienti¬c uncertainty 217B, 218
Hurricane Mitch 4, 179, 181
IS 92a scenario (business-as-usual) 115, 118, 192
most damaging hurricane known so far 183
SRES scenarios 51“2, 116, 116, 117B
hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons 4“6, 131
estimates of human-related methane emissions 44, 44
mid-latitude storms, increased intensity expected 132“3
working groups
severe storm, England (October 1987) 85B
contributions widely based 221“2
Huxley, Thomas ˜humility before the facts™ 211
reports xxix“xxx, 219
hydro-power/hydro-electric schemes 290, 291“3, 292
Science Assessment Working Group 219“20
pumped storage 293
international action, principles for 230
irrigation 164
for fuel cells 311B, 312
improvements in availability and management of water
storage problems 213
needed 167
hydrological cycle, becoming more intense 128, 129, 130“1
micro“irrigation techniques 163
hydroxyl radicals (OHs) 48
MINK region, groundwater resource non“renewable 160
wasteful of water 162
ice ages 53, 70
Islam 205
data over four cycles 69
and the greenhouse effect 17B
carbon 36“7B
periods of greater marine biological acitivity 35“6B
palaeoclimate reconstruction from data 67B
ice caps 64, 67
ice cores 67
Japan, rooftop solar installations 303
evidence for the biological pump 35
Joint Implementation, Kyoto protocol 248B
information sources 67“70
Judaeo-Christian tradition 213“14n
show series of rapid temperature oscillations 73“5, 74
stewardship 208“9
Iceland, development of a hydrogen economy 314
Judaism, caring for the Earth 205
ice-sheets, and sea level rise 145“6, 149“50
India 302
Kelvin wave 89B, 89B
heatwaves 177B
Kyoto protocol 244, 246“7
northwest, water availability seriously reduced in
emissions targets for greenhouse gases 246, 246
simulations 161
likely implementation costs 248“9
rural power production 295B
mechanisms 248B
industrial haze 48
allow offsetting of domestic emission obligations
energy savings in 284“5
estimates of potential greenhouse gas reductions
land-use change
can affect amount of rainfall 173B
responsibilities of 324“5
carbon dioxide emissions from 31, 33, 33
insurance industry
deforestation in tropical regions 37, 39
and climate change 5, 183B, 182
land¬ll sites, cut in methane produced 253“4
costs of weather-related disasters 4, 5
light emitting diodes (LEDs) 279B
losses due to extreme events 179
Little Ice Age 65, 138B
recent disasters 4
Lorenz, Edward 82
Integrated Assessment and Evaluation 145, 237B, 260
Lovelock, James E.
integrated assessment models 109, 237, 237B
Daisyworld 202, 203B
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Gaia, the Practical Science of Planetary Medicine 203
xxviii“xxix, 42
quoted on Gaia 203
1990 report xxix, 76n, 104, 120
Index 347

Native Americans 204
malaria and dengue fever 178
natural capital 238
Maldives, Indian Ocean, vulnerable to sea-level rise 153
natural disasters, involving water 160
marine biological activity
natural gas see fossil fuels
greater during the ice ages 35“6B
natural gas pipelines, reduction of leakage 254
past variations in, control on atmospheric carbon dioxide
The Netherlands, protected coastal lowlands 153
concentrations 69, 173“4
Nile Delta, Egypt, affected by sea level rise 152
Mars, atmosphere 21, 25
Nile, River, shared water resource 157“8
Marshall Islands, Paci¬c Ocean, vulnerable to sea-level rise
nitrogen 16, 16
nitrogen oxides (N Oand N O 2 ) 48, 245“6
Maunder Minimum 67
Medieval Warm Period 65 emitted from aircraft 48
Mendeleev, Dmitri 16 nitrous oxide 29, 45, 260
methane 29, 42“4, 55n, 294 ˜no-regrets™ proposals 227“8, 287
changes in concentration 42“3, 43 North Atlantic
a more effective greenhouse gas 297 GCMs show less warming in 126, 136
reduction in sources of 253“4 northern 124
removal from atmosphere 43 ocean circulation 75, 101B, 102
sources and sinks 43, 44 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 130
methane hydrates 40, 270 nuclear energy 274, 316
Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU), remote temperature uranium reserves 276
observations 59-60B nuclear ¬ssion 316
Milankovitch theory/cycles 70“2
correlation with cycles of climatic change 69, 102, ocean circulation
106 North Atlantic 75, 99B, 99
minerals, and the Industrial Revolution 198, 199 see also thermohaline circulation
MINK region (USA) study 160B ocean currents, tidal streams and ocean waves, energy
decline and die-back of forests 172 present 306
mitigation of climate change 11, 231, 232“3, 235, 239 ocean“atmosphere GCMs 126
see also Kyoto protocol model projections 118“19, 121
mitigation energy scenarios 277, 277 show weakening of the THC 136, 137
see also World Energy Council, detailed energy see also atmosphere“ocean coupled models
scenarios ocean“atmosphere interface, exchange of heat, water and
models momentum 96
atmospheric 79“80, 79, 80B oceans
climate models, regional and simple 121B, 121, 133, 135, inadequately monitored 223
162, 222 recent work relating to warming of 105“6
climate prediction models 95“8 thermal expansion 64, 146, 146B, 148
coupled models 87B, 96“9, 97 oil see fossil fuels
limitations give rise to uncertainty 217, 217B orbital variation 69, 69, 70“2, 101, 106, 138“9
for ocean“atmosphere carbon exchange 33, 33, 36 Our Common Future, Bruntland Commission 226B
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) 107, 108, 132, 133, oxygen isotopes 74
135, 162, 181 in palaeoclimatic reconstruction 67B
weather-forecasting 80, 81, 82, 84 ozone
see also Daisyworld complex effect from depletion 47
monitoring destroyed by CFCs 45“6, 323
of climate parameters 222“3 a greenhouse gas 46
of major oceans 223 levels beginning to recover 229
Montreal Protocol 46, 245“6, 260, 264, 326 tropospheric 260, 267n
Mozambique 5 can become a health hazard 47“8
multicriteria analysis 260 ozone hole, Antarctica 46, 229
348 Index

cloud 92B, 94
Paci¬c, tropical, surface temperature more El Ni˜ o-like
direct and indirect, caused by aerosols 49, 50, 51
62“4, 127
of doubled carbon dioxide 123“4
Paci¬c“North Atlantic Anomaly (PNA) 127
estimates 50, 52“3
Pakistan, northwest, water availability in simulations 162
from emission pro¬les 117, 120, 122
palaeoclimatic data 67B, 69“70, 100
possible effects of aviation 50, 53
palaeoclimate reconstruction, from isotope data 67B
signi¬cant effects of tropospheric ozone and sulphate
Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO), policies to
aerosols 267n
reduce effects of hurricanes 179
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) 107, 108, 131, 133, 135,
Patmos Principles 214n
162, 218
per¬‚uorocarbons 47
regional modelling techniques 107, 108, 109
perihelion 70, 71, 101, 101
Peru, adaptation to changing climate 166
and science, seen to be complimentary 208
Philippines, biomass power generation and coconut oil
and the scienti¬c outlook 207
pressing 296B
and the will to act 210
photosynthesis 37
renewable energy 268, 290“306
photovoltaic (PV) cells 293, 300B, 302, 304, 312“13
current status, future potential costs 292
building-integrated-PV sector 303
support and ¬nancing of 306“8
costs competitive 303“4
resource consumption, contributing to global warming
provision of local electricity sources in rural areas 303“4
Pinatubo, Mount, eruption 1991 40B
respiration 37, 40B
dust from 8, 49, 101, 102, 139
Revelle, Roger 17“18B
plankton multiplier 36B, 40B
Richardson, Lewis Fry 77“8
plant species, constraints imposed by dispersal process 169
Rio Declaration 198, 231, 231B, 323
Polluter Pays Principle 226B, 231B, 249, 247, 261, 262, 328,
Precautionary Principle 228
river systems, regulated and unregulated, sensitivity to
¬nancial incentives for renewables 307
climate change 164
pollution, a danger to human health 176
road transport
pollution issues xxxviii
freight transport 284
see also acid rain; global warming; ozone
greenhouse gas emissions 283
population growth
growth in motor vehicle population 284, 285
demands of 326
motor transport, actions to curb energy use 284
and poverty 326B
use of fuel cells 285B, 311, 312
poverty 326
Rossby waves 89B, 89B
and population growth 326B
Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP),
power stations
Energy in a Changing Climate 313B
increased ef¬ciency possible 286
runoff, sensitive to changes in climate 157“8
use of low-grade heat 286
Precautionary Principle 226B, 228“9, 231B, 261
Sahel region, Africa, seasonal weather forecasting 87B, 87
satellite observations 58“9
change with a warming Earth 126“7
of atmospheric temperature 59“60B
and climate change 157
of the climate system, instruments for 223B
increased, leading to more ¬‚ooding 163“4
satellites, geostationary and polar orbiting 224B
with a more intense hydrological cycle 128, 129, 130“1
science, and religion, seen to be complementary 209“10
primary energy, proportion of wasted 278
Science Assessment Working Group (IPCC) 219“21
pumped storage 293
reports contain Summary for Policy Makers 222
scienti¬c uncertainty 216“18
radiation, absorption and re¬‚ection 18, 20
reasons for 217B
radiation balance, Earth 14, 15“16, 15
scientists, and Theories of Everything 207
radiation budget 20“1, 21
sea level, changes in 145
radiative forcing 29, 46, 54n, 105
Index 349

re¬‚ection by ice/snow 95
melting or growth of ice-sheets 145“6, 149
varies over time 100
thermal expansion of ocean waters 146, 146B
solar variability 50, 52“3
sea level rise 237B
solar wall 301B, 301
21st century
solar water heating 300B, 300
changes from ice-sheets will be small 149
solubility pump 34
melting of glaciers 146“7
Sri Lanka, small hospitals bene¬t from solar arrays 304
not uniform over the globe 147, 149
SRES scenarios 147, 148
of carbon dioxide concentrations 254“8, 272“3
through thermal expansion of ocean waters 146
Contraction and Convergence proposal 261“2, 262,
by how much? 145“50
impacts of 150“5
choice of stabilisation levels 258“9
indirect consequences 237B
of greenhouse gas emissions 245
sea surface temperatures
Statistical Downscaling 107, 109
anomalies persistent 85
stewardship, of the earth xxxii, 208“10, 211
changes in 58
storm surges 4, 151, 237B
and El Ni˜ o events 5“6
stratosphere, lower, cooling in 59, 61
forecast of aids seasonal forecasting 85“6
Suess, Hans 17“18B
tropics, atmosphere sensitive to 84
sugar cane
seasonal forecasting 83“8
alcohol for fuel produced from 297
Sahel region, Africa 87B, 87
as biomass 295B, 296
security, threatened by climate change impacts 326“7
sulphate particles 49, 49, 50, 117
sediments, oceanic, palaeoclimatic data contained in
sulphur dioxide
emissions likely to rise less rapidly 51, 117
semi-arid regions, loss of vegetation, can lead to changes in
from volcanic eruptions 7“8
rainfall 163
sulphur hexa¬‚uoride 47
sensitivity 144B, 145
summers, drier 157
of different systems, variation in 143
to climate change in 21st century of major crops 164, 163B
energy from 301“5
sequential decision making 260
indirect mechanisms to alter Earth™s climate
Silent Spring, Rachel Carson 197“8
singular (irreversible) events 232
possibility of change in output 138B
effects 185, 186
radiant energy from 14“15, 15
need to guard against 228“9
sunspot activity 138B
snowmelt, as runoff, affected by climate change 159
surprises see singular (irreversible) events
soil degradation 164
sustainability analysis 260
soil moisture, loss of in continental areas 159, 163
sustainable consumption 326
solar cookers 294, 300
sustainable development 198, 225“6, 231B, 261
solar energy 308
de¬nitions 226B
concentration with mirrors 290
and the environment 235
ef¬ciency of conversion to electrical energy 302
Sustainable Development Commission (UN) 324
solar (energy) systems, growth potential 304
Sweden, Uppsala, comprehensive district heating system
solar heat, used in the generation of electricity 391“2
Solar Home Systems 304, 304
solar lanterns 304
Tambora (volcano) 66
solar output
technical ¬xes 229“30
reduction in and ˜Little Ice Age™ 138B
neither balanced nor sustainable 201
variation in 66“7
very constant 138B
for the longer term 311“14
solar radiation 79, 92, 101
necessary, already available 327
and orbital changes 138“9
350 Index

Mississippi delta, lacks sediment inputs 152“3
Sacramento Basin, runoff, simulations 158“9, 158
global, increase in leads to climate change 9“10
study of MINK region 160B, 172
millennial northern hemisphere record 65, 66, 67
withdrawal from Kyoto protocol 247
minima increased more than maxima 61
rate of change since last glacial maximum 72“3
temperature change, atmospheric 124“6
environmental 205“7
temperature extremes 7“8, 177B
shared values 205“6
Thatcher, Baroness Margaret xxix, 225
related to science 206
THC see thermohaline circulation
and religion 207
thermal expansion (oceans) 146, 146B, 148
Venezuela 5
thermal radiation 15“16, 26n, 78, 94
Venus, atmosphere 21“2, 25
in the infrared region 18, 19, 20
volcanic dust, Mount Pinatubo 8, 49, 102, 102
thermodynamic ef¬ciencies 277B
volcanic eruptions 66, 102
thermohaline circulation 99B, 99, 186
and climatic variability 60, 139
changes in 135, 137
effect on temperature extremes 7“8
cut off, effects of 136, 137
Vostok ice core 67, 72
effects of increased precipitation 136
data on temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations
link with melting ice 74
68, 69
This Common Inheritance, UK White Paper 226B
vulnerability 144B, 145
tidal energy 306
of some watersheds to climate change 159“60
tracers, modelling of in the ocean 102B
to extreme events and disasters 178, 179
tradeable permits 307
to sea level rise
see also emissions trading
Bangladesh 150“2, 154
transport, energy savings in 283“5
cities in coastal regions 153, 154
tritium, as a tracer 102, 102
low-lying Paci¬c and Indian Ocean islands 153
Tyndall, John 17B
Nile Delta 152“3
The Netherlands 153, 154
wetland and mangrove ecosystems 153“4
Policy and Innovation Unit (PIU), Cabinet Of¬ce, Energy
Review 313B
potential of Severn estuary 306
over oil 326
White Paper, This Common Inheritance 226B
threatened by loss of water supplies 326“7
UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)
waste, incineration for power generation 199“200
(Rio:1992) xxix, 198, 210, 221
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change see Climate
growth in worldwide use 156, 158
Change Convention
a key substance for human 156
uncertainty 120, 216“41
vulnerability arising from shared resources 157“8
carbon dioxide concentration scenarios 117, 121B
water supplies
and future innovation 235“6
loss of and threat of con¬‚ict 326“7
mitigating responses 12
vulnerable to climate change 158“65
of model predictions 109“10
water vapour 91
narrowing of 222“4
in climate models 79
over size of warming 10
water-stressed countries 156
regarding cloud-radiation feedback 95
watershed, vulnerable to climate change, identi¬cation of 160
uranium 270
weather, variations in 2
weather forecasting
the Dust Bowl 161
data sources for UK Meteorological Of¬ce model 82
energy use in buildings 279
ensemble forecasting 74
identi¬cation of electricity savings to be made 280“2,
models for 79, 81
Index 351

improvement in 81, 83 wood fuel, recycling of carbon from 253
potential improvements in forecasting skill 82“5, 83 World Climate Conference (Geneva:1990) xxix
and uncertainty 220 World Energy Council
weather-related disasters (1990s), fatalities, economic and contributions from ˜new™ renewables 291, 291
insured losses 179, 182, 183 detailed energy scenarios 42, 273“7, 274, 276B
wetlands, and mangrove swamps, can adjust to slow levels of recognise importance of nuclear energy 310
sea level rise 154 ecologically driven scenario (Scenario C) 263, 273, 273,
will to act 209“10 277, 275, 277B
lack seen as a spiritual problem 210 energy demand reduced 278“9
wind energy 298“300, 308 Report, Energy for Tomorrow™s World 141n
suitable for isolated sites 300 world energy demand and supply 268“72
wind power on Fair Isle 299B, 307 world religions, close relationship between humans and the
wind farms, public concerns 298 Earth 204“5
wind turbines 298, 300
winter cold, several deaths during 175 Younger Dryas event 73, 74, 75


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